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LX COMMENT ON… US ELECTION

By Gavin Jackson ⋅ February 25, 2008 ⋅  Print this post ⋅ Post a comment

“Something is in the air in New Hampshire. Something is going on.” Thus spake Barack Obama, Senator for Illinois, before a crowd which answered with a roar….

That was the beginning of January. For all his rhetoric and famed powers of oratory the New Hampshire primary would fall to the Clinton campaign. A late rally by female voters, answering the call following defeat in the Iowa caucus, made the loss seem a temporary one.

Not for long.

The popularity of the Clintons among the African-American leadership would prove to be inadequate to split the African-American vote as Obama thundered to victory in South Carolina where a little more than half the electorate is African-American. In a three way fight, Obama took 78% of their vote. With a quarter of the white vote on top of that Obama routed both the Clinton and Edwards campaigns. Coupled with his earlier victory in Iowa, one of the whitest states of America, the omen was a bad one for the other Democratic candidates.

These early victories would prove vital for the Obama camp going into Super Tuesday, where Clinton was backed to win with a decent margin. Heavy losses were anticipated for Obama in California and New York, the latter her adoptive home state and CNN polls in the former showing Clinton with a seventeen point lead in a state holding nearly a quarter of all the delegates available on the day. With these two super states in hand Super Tuesday would go to Hillary Clinton.

The Republican race seems to be turning from competition to coronation. Such is the popularity of former fighter pilot and Hanoi POW John McCain, among voters at least, that his most viable opponent, Mitt Romney, visibly holding back the tears, announced his intention to drop out of the race. Stating the need for unity and his desire that McCain have the opportunity to launch a national campaign against two candidates who “have made their intentions clear regarding Iraq and the war on terror. They would retreat and declare defeat. The consequences of that would be devastating.” Let us hope this great patriot wasn’t hurt whilst nailing himself to the cross of the Vice-Presidency….

As for Mike Huckabee, for all his credentials let us just say he plays guitar and counts Chuck Norris among his supporters.

Over the last fortnight, matters have changed significantly. Nine straight victories in states as diverse as Maine, the Virgin Islands and Louisiana, underlining his broad base appeal, put Obama clear of the Clintons. Further wins are expected in Hawaii and Wisconsin, but they will not be enough to take the nomination. The Democratic campaign will go to the death.

With campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle stepping down as wartime consigliere, followed by deputy Mike Henry leaving the Clinton camp, former aide to President Clinton David Wilhelm defecting and Senator Ted Kennedy anointing Barack Obama as the heir to the Kennedy lineage the Clinton campaign seems to be tearing itself apart trying to stamp out the Obama insurgency. Their hopes are pinned on a full scale pitched battle in the Texas and Ohio primaries. We may be about to witness the Clinton campaign’s greatest victory, or their last stand.